Zachary Neel
May 12, 2024 5:27 am PT
Will the final College Football Playoff rankings at the end of the 2024-25 season look exactly like the preseason top-25 rankings? No, probably not. That doesn’t mean that we can’t still use the various “way-too-early” rankings to forecast what may lie ahead for a team like the Oregon Ducks this upcoming season.
It will be an interesting season, to say the least. Not only are the Ducks and several other prominent teams headed to new conferences, but the College Football Playoff is also expanding to 12 teams for the first time, bringing a new qualification model with it.
At the moment, the Ducks are being ranked prominently in the top 5 of those early preseason rankings, based on where you look. So what does that mean when you consider the 12-team playoff model, and which teams they could end up playing at the end of the year in that CFP?
To go through this hypothetical, we’re going to use the CBS Sports Top 25, where Oregon is ranked No. 3 behind Georgia and Ohio State. This would assume that the Buckeyes beat the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship, getting the automatic playoff bid, while Oregon would take over as the top-ranked at-large-bid, getting the No. 5 seed.
Let’s see what that seed would bring Dan Lanning and the Ducks.
Note: In these matchups, we advanced Oregon through each game to show what their path would look like, while teams in other matchups were advanced based on who had the higher seed.
Playoff Seeds and First-Round Byes
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Playoff Seeds
1. Georgia Bulldogs (Final Ranking: No. 1)*
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Final Ranking: No. 2)*
3. Utah Utes (Final Ranking: No. 11)*
4. Clemson Tigers (Final Ranking: No. 14)*
5. Oregon Ducks (Final Ranking: No. 3)
6. Texas Longhorns (Final Ranking: No. 4)
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (Final Ranking: No. 5)
8. Ole Miss Rebels (Final Ranking: No. 6)
9. Missouri Tigers (Final Ranking: No. 7)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Final Ranking: No. 8)
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (Final Ranking: No. 9)
12. Boise State Broncos (Final Ranking: Not Ranked)*
The top four seeds — Georgia, Ohio State, Utah, and Clemson — would all receive first-round byes in this scenario after winning their respective conference championships. Boise State, while not ranked to end the year, would get the final playoff spot after winning the Moutain West Conference Championship.
First Round: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Missouri
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Analysis: This SEC matchup would be an entertaining watch, but it wouldn’t be a rematch from the 2024 season, as both the Rebels and Tigers miss each other during the regular season. Luther Burden vs. Jaxson Dart would bring a lot of star power to the field.
Winner by Seed: Ole Miss Rebels
First Round: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Analysis: Now here is a rematch. The Ducks and Broncos play each other win Week 2 of the 2024 season, so the chance that they would get to meet again in the playoff is intriguing. Of course, that early-season game would tell us a lot about what to expect in the playoff.
Winner by Seed: Oregon Ducks
First Round: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Penn State
Syndication: Austin American-Statesman
Analysis: Talk about at “helmet game” between two of the most historic programs in the history of the sport. Watching Quinn Ewers vs. Drew Allar would be a lot of fun, and assuming that both teams get to this point, you can guarantee it would provide some fireworks.
Winner by Seed: Texas Longhorns
First Round: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Notre Dame
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Analysis: There’s an expectation that Notre Dame can get to the playoff because of their easy schedule, but if Kalen DeBoer can get the Crimson Tide back to the playoff once again in his first year, that will be impressive.
Winner by Seed: Alabama Crimson Tide
Quarterfinals: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
Syndication: Online Athens
Analysis: Georgia and Ole Miss play on November 9, so this playoff matchup would be a rematch from the regular season, and would likely be among the most anticipated games of the year.
Winner by Seed: Georgia Bulldogs
Quarterfinals: No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 5 Oregon
Syndication: The Register Guard
Analysis: While they are two of the most prestigious teams in the nation, the Ducks and Tigers have never played before, so it would be an intriguing matchup when it comes to that aspect. You also have two very strong defenses going up against a pair of promising quarterbacks and vocal head coaches facing off.
Advance: Oregon Ducks
Quarterfinals: No. 3 Utah vs. No. 6 Texas
Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
Analysis: With a hypothetical win in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Utes would get a bye until the second round, where they’d likely be an underdog to Quinn Ewers and the Texas Longhorns. Give me Texas in this matchup.
Winner by Seed: Utah Utes
Quarterfinals: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Alabama
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
Analysis: Talk about a game that is must-watch. Alabama and Ohio State have been two of the most prestigious programs in the nation over the last couple of decades, if not longer, so seeing them square off in a playoff quarterfinal would be high entertainment.
Winner by Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes
Semifinals: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 5 Oregon
Syndication: Online Athens
Analysis: Rematch from the 2022 season opener? Oregon fans are hoping that this game goes differently than the last one did. Getting to see Dan Lanning go up against Kirby Smart and his former team would be incredibly entertaining.
Advance: Oregon Ducks
Semifinals: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Utah
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
Analysis: I know we advanced Utah over Texas based on seeding, but I don’t think that would be the expected outcome in the end. It feels like this should be Ohio State vs. Texas, which would be an incredibly entertaining game.
Winner by Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes
Championship: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Oregon
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
Analysis: In reality, this potential matchup between Oregon and Ohio State could be the third rematch of the year, with the two playing on October 12, and potentially again in the Big Ten Championship Game. What a game that would be.
